Signs of a Big Decline: Is ChatGPT’s Star Starting to Fade?

The stagnation in the download figures of the ChatGPT mobile application is poised to shift the balance in the AI world. Analysts link this slowdown to the rise of competitors and OpenAI‘s deliberate modification of its model.
ChatGPT‘s mobile application, which has been taking the artificial intelligence world by storm, may have reached an inflection point in its growth rate. A new analysis by third-party app intelligence firm Apptopia indicates that the upward trend in ChatGPT‘s mobile app downloads and daily active users is slowing and has likely peaked.
According to Apptopia‘s forecasts, user growth, measured by the percentage change in new global downloads, slowed down markedly after April. Even in the first half of October, a projected 8.1% drop in global downloads is anticipated compared to the previous month.
However, it is crucial to clarify that this data focuses on the download growth rate rather than the total number of downloads. The ChatGPT mobile app continues to perform well with millions of downloads daily. Yet, this pause in the growth rate could signify a halt in the application’s overall momentum. It is probable that factors such as increasing competition and changes to the features of the artificial intelligence model itself are behind this situation.
Users are Spending Less Time on the App

A deeper dive reveals declines in other key user metrics. Data from the US, in particular, may be concerning for the application. In the US, the average time spent per daily active user has dropped by 22.5% since July, while the average number of sessions per daily active user has decreased by 20.7%. These declines show that US users are spending less time on the ChatGPT app and opening it less frequently. The stabilization of user churn in the US during the same period suggests that the app is now retaining its core user base, rather than users who try it briefly.
Apptopia suggests this trend may be caused not only by the emergence of competitors like Google Gemini but also by changes to ChatGPT‘s AI model. An update in April was designed to make the chatbot less “sycophantic”; this continued with GPT-5, released in August, which is said to be less empathetic.
According to Apptopia, the initial excitement phase for mobile applications may be over, and ChatGPT has now become an ordinary part of users’ daily routines. For OpenAI, this means it will need to invest in marketing or release new features, just as other established mobile applications must do. It is clear that an application can no longer rely solely on the excitement created by novelty to sustain growth…
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